What happens if our assumptions no longer hold?
Circonomit simulates the relevant scenarios before you decide: demand shifts, price shocks, supply chain disruptions. Every assumption is explicit, every consequence calculated.
Assumptions that never get tested become risk.
Your planning rests on assumptions — about prices, demand, lead times. Which of them are critical, and which can swing how far before your plan flips, nobody calculates.
When a market assumption breaks, the question arises: what now? The answer comes as a guess, because no model was prepared to simulate the deviation.
Spreadsheet scenarios get built once, then freeze. A living model that survives changing parameters — that is not what Excel was built for.
Circonomit calculates what moves — before the world moves.
Your controlling plans a reference case. Circonomit calculates what happens at the edges. Which parameters break your plan, and which do not? With explicit tipping points per assumption.
Model
First the scenario problem is structured: which parameters drive your plan? Demand, prices, lead times, capacities? Which assumptions are coupled? Circonomit connects your data and your planners’ knowledge into a calculable model with transparent assumptions.
Simulate
What happens to margin if input prices rise 12%? What does a three-week supply disruption cost? Circonomit simulates the consequence per scenario, with sensitivities for every relevant parameter.
Optimize
Circonomit calculates which decision holds up best across the relevant scenarios, under your real boundary conditions. Not the optimum for one case, the robust choice across the corridor — with an explicit price for every alternative.
Robust decisions across the scenario corridor.
The result: a calculated model for your scenario question, with three to five quantified cases and sensitivity analyses per critical parameter. You see which decision holds up across the corridor, and what every deviation from the reference case concretely costs.
Scenario decisions with a number, not a guess.
You see which assumptions really drive your plan, and which swing room each of them has before the plan flips. Calculated, not estimated.
Every scenario carries a price. Circonomit makes the consequences visible before the situation forces your hand.
No new data project. Circonomit works with your existing data from ERP, controlling or Excel.
What you want to know.
Q:
How is this different from scenario sheets we already build in Excel?
A:
Excel scenarios are single snapshots — copies that go stale as soon as a parameter moves. Circonomit builds a living model that you can re-run at any time with new assumptions, and that shows explicit sensitivities per parameter. The work is not the scenario itself, it is keeping it defensible when the world moves.
Q:
What does the pilot concretely deliver after 3 weeks?
A:
A calculated model for the agreed scenario question, based on your real data. Three to five quantified scenarios with sensitivity analyses per critical parameter. A comparison against the current reference case. The success criterion is agreed in writing before work starts. Fixed price: EUR 7,500 net.
Q:
How many scenarios can we run?
A:
As many as are decision-relevant. We agree three to five main scenarios for the pilot, plus the sensitivities per parameter. In operation the model re-runs at any time with new assumptions — without rebuilding it. That is the point of the calculable model versus the Excel copy.
Try Circonomit
Talk to the team. No pressure.
Initial consultation over a virtual coffee
We understand your challenge
Pilot model in 3 weeks, fixed price €7,500
Based on your real data. Success criterion agreed in writing.
Decisions you can stand behind
Traceable, quantified, repeatable
