Circonomit calculates how changes in demand, prices, or costs affect your results, and which of your decisions are robust, and which are fragile.
You plan with assumptions about demand, prices, and costs. But how stable your decisions are if those assumptions do not hold, remains open.
Every decision can be calculated retrospectively. That rarely happens before it is made. The critical question is not what was, but what the alternatives would have concretely cost.
Scenario planning in Excel means: one model, three variants, many assumptions. Where the critical tipping points are, when a decision reverses, remains unclear.
Excel scenarios show what happens under one assumption. Circonomit shows which assumptions are truly decision-relevant and where the tipping points are. Systematically calculated, not manually tried.
First, the decision problem is structured: Which parameters are uncertain? Which target variables are relevant? Which constraints are binding? Circonomit connects your data and knowledge into a computable model, with explicit assumptions, not implicit ones.
Circonomit simulates systematically: What happens if raw material prices rise by 15%? What if demand in one segment collapses? What if a competitor cuts prices? Every scenario delivers a calculated number, not a gut feeling.
Circonomit identifies the decisions that yield the best trade-off under the most likely scenarios, and shows which are fragile. With an explicit cost for every alternative. A basis you can defend internally.
The result: a calculated model for your planning problem, with tipping point analysis and a clear comparison to current practice. You know at which thresholds a decision reverses, and which scenarios are actually decision-relevant under your real conditions.
You see how changes in demand, prices, and costs affect your results, and where the tipping points are. Calculated, not guessed.
Circonomit shows at which point a change reverses a decision. That means you know which decisions are robust, and which need caution.
No new data project. Circonomit works with your existing data from ERP, controlling, or Excel.
Q:
What distinguishes Circonomit from scenario planning in Excel or our BI tool?
A:
Excel scenarios and BI tools show what happens under a certain assumption, if you enter the assumption manually. Circonomit answers a different question: Where are the tipping points at which a decision reverses? And which scenarios are actually decision-relevant? That is not a reporting function, but a decision function. Circonomit complements your existing tools, it does not replace them.
Q:
What does the pilot deliver after 3 weeks?
A:
A calculated model for the agreed scenario problem, based on your real data. Three to five quantified scenarios with an explicit result comparison and tipping point analysis. A comparison to current planning practice. The success criterion is agreed in writing before the start. Fixed price: EUR 7,500 net.
Q:
How many scenarios can Circonomit calculate?
A:
The number is not the limiting factor, the model is. A well-structured model allows many scenarios. Together we define which scenarios are decision-relevant, and calculate those. Unstructured trial and error is not the goal, systematic decision support is.
Talk to the team. No pressure.
Initial consultation over a virtual coffee
We understand your challenge
Pilot model in 3 weeks, fixed price €7,500
Based on your real data. Success criterion agreed in writing.
Decisions you can stand behind
Traceable, quantified, repeatable